Monday, June 1, 2009

Consistently wrong.

Having called the market 100% correctly on the way down it's dreadful to admit that I've called it 100% wrong on the way up. While I've been worried about the health of Euroland banks and the massive industrial overcapacity that the US and EU are going to be left with in 2010 others have been focusing on:
  • The coherent policy actions taken by government to get the world moving again
  • The way second quarter numbers were overly negative and have surprised on the upside
  • For the man on the street lower interest and mortgage rates are putting money into his pocket
  • With the S&P at 666 levels prices were at all time lows and discounting Armageddon
  • Long only funds are long cash and short equities and now having to play catch-up
  • Hedge Funds have seen redemptions slow or cease and are back to earning their money by investing
  • We're all expecting a correction but the market has a way of surprising us - why shouldn't it go higher?

Cash has proven to be the wrong place to be. Until the bills for the stimulus packages come due through higher tax and structurally slower growth there is no reason for markets not to party.What the hangover will be like when the party finishes is a different question.This is till likely to be the deepest recession since 1945 even if a depression has been averted.

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