Just back from Spain. Signs of the downturn obvious. Restaurants empty, For Sale signs sprouting. Tax collection falling because official tax rates ( ie 85% inheritance tax ) are set at ridiculous levels. Most worrying thing is that most Spaniards I talk to, for the large part highly educated, assume that everything is going to return to the way it was in 1 or 2 years time.
What happens if structural youth unemployment of more than 50% continues past mid-decade. What is likely to make it fall ? The € crisis may not be over. It may simply be playing itself out at a less frentic pace.