Thursday, February 16, 2012

10 Questions

2012 is shaping up to be a year of big , performance defining, geopolitical calls . For portfolio managers, weightings in the greenback, the € , oil , gold and commodities will in large measure be determined by the following.
  • Will Greece default and trigger a Lehmann style event in the EU?
  • Will Iran create mischief in the run-up to the US Presidential election ?
  • Will the proxy war in Syria cause even more turmoil in the mid-East ?
  • Could unrest spread to the Saudi Eastern Provinces ?
  • What's the upside for oil - $120, $140, $160 ?
  • Will Hollande beat Sarkozy in the French Presidential election ?
  • Would a Socialist victory cause a rupture in Franco-German relations ?
  • Is it possible Germany will start to question its €-zone membership ?
  • How will the dispute between Argentina and the UK proceed ?
  • Amid defence cuts in the US and NATO. Is military weakness provocative ?

We'll start working through our take on each of these tomorrow.

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