Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Kicking the can .

Supposedly an agreement in principle. More of a penultimate draft. No wonder Frau Merkel has so reticent in speaking out about it. All eyes now on the domestic German reaction and the way the polls swing . No doubting that this deal will be revisited after March 20th - probably sooner rather than later . €20,000 of bailout per capita and no final resolution in sight. Something in that number says this can't be right. To make it work three things need to fall into place . Greece has to return to growth. Without growth the agreement is meaningless. Then the Greeks have to accept the austerity the agreement stipulates . Finally, the next government has to stick by the agreement that has been hammereed out. In the absence of 1, 2 or 3 Greece will be back on the institutional radar screens by end Q2.

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